Central Asia & Caucasus

The hydrocarbon infrastructure of Central Asia and the Caucasus constitutes one of the most complex pipeline networks outside the Middle East. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) — a 1,500-kilometre pipeline carrying approximately 1.5 million barrels per day from Kazakhstan's Tengiz field to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk — remains the single most important crude oil export route for Central Asian production, though its transit through Russian territory has introduced geopolitical risk that is driving diversification planning. The Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline, with a capacity of 55 billion cubic metres per year across three operational lines (a fourth is under construction), represents the largest overland gas transmission system in Asia and has fundamentally redirected Turkmen gas exports from their historical dependence on Russia toward Chinese demand. Azerbaijan's Southern Gas Corridor — comprising the South Caucasus Pipeline, TANAP across Turkey, and TAP into southern Italy — delivers Caspian gas directly to European markets and has become strategically critical to the EU's energy security calculus following the curtailment of Russian pipeline flows. Uzbekistan, historically a gas exporter, is now pursuing a gas-to-chemicals programme designed to capture downstream value domestically rather than exporting raw molecules. The post-2022 reorientation of energy transit routes away from Russian-controlled infrastructure is creating entirely new pipeline economics across the region, with the Trans-Caspian pipeline — a long-discussed subsea link between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan — now receiving serious political and commercial momentum for the first time in two decades.

Central Asia's mineral wealth extends far beyond hydrocarbons and is increasingly central to global energy transition supply chains. Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom is the world's largest uranium producer, accounting for roughly 43% of global primary uranium supply — a market position that gives it structural pricing influence as nuclear power experiences a global renaissance driven by data centre electricity demand and decarbonisation targets. Uzbekistan's Muruntau mine, operated by Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Company, is the world's largest open-pit gold mine, with estimated reserves exceeding 170 million ounces; the country ranks among the top ten gold producers globally. Beyond uranium and gold, the region holds significant deposits of copper (Kazakhstan's Kounrad and Aktogay mines), chrome (Kazakhstan is a top-four global producer), tungsten, molybdenum, and increasingly identified rare earth deposits. The strategic minerals agenda — driven by US, EU, and Chinese competition for supply chain security — has elevated Central Asia from a peripheral mining jurisdiction to a critical node in the global critical minerals architecture. The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act and the US Minerals Security Partnership both identify Central Asian sources as priority diversification targets, creating a competitive dynamic between Western and Chinese capital for offtake agreements and equity positions in the region's extractive industries.

The energy transition in Central Asia presents a paradox: the region's economies are overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuel extraction and export, yet its physical geography — vast, sparsely populated steppe with exceptional wind and solar irradiance — makes it among the most naturally suited territories on earth for renewable energy deployment at scale. Kazakhstan has committed to achieving 15% renewable electricity generation by 2030 and has attracted investment from Masdar (Abu Dhabi), Total Energies, ENI, and a range of Chinese developers for wind and solar projects across the southern and central steppe regions. Uzbekistan's renewable energy programme is among the most ambitious in the developing world: a target of 12 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, tendered through a transparent international auction process that has attracted bids from ACWA Power (Saudi Arabia), Masdar, and leading European developers. Nuclear power programmes are advancing in both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan — Kazakhstan has approved a national referendum on nuclear construction with Rosatom as the likely contractor, while Uzbekistan is evaluating small modular reactor (SMR) technology from multiple vendors including Rosatom, KHNP (South Korea), and NuScale (United States). The long-term strategic opportunity is green hydrogen: Central Asian wind and solar resources, combined with the region's existing pipeline infrastructure and proximity to both European and Chinese markets, position the steppe economies as potential large-scale producers of green hydrogen and green ammonia. Early-stage feasibility studies are underway in both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, with Gulf-based developers — Masdar, ACWA Power, and ENOC — among the most active commercial counterparties exploring offtake arrangements.